PredictRoyale

Most Divergent

Markets where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree the most on the same outcome. A wide gap may signal an arbitrage opportunity or a difference in market structure.

231 markets

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Who will Trump endorse?

99pt gap
Kalshi

Andy Barr

99%
Polymarket

Ken Paxton - TX-Sen

100%
Closes in 2mo
$385K total vol

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

49pt gap
Kalshi

J.D. Vance

34%
Polymarket

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

49%
Closes in 29mo
$684.6M total vol

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

47pt gap
Kalshi

Dan Koh

73%
Polymarket

Dan Koh

76%
Closes in 5mo
$54K total vol

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

45pt gap
Kalshi

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

100%
Polymarket

Pam Bondi

100%
Closes in 7mo
$5.7M total vol

CA-43 House Election Winner

44pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

51%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

95%
Closes in 17mo
$23K total vol

IN-03 House Election Winner

43pt gap
Kalshi

Republican party

48%
Polymarket

Republican Party

92%
Closes in 17mo
$5K total vol

IN-08 House Election Winner

43pt gap
Kalshi

Republican party

53%
Polymarket

Republican Party

96%
Closes in 17mo
$40K total vol

MI-12 House Election Winner

43pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

51%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

94%
Closes in 17mo
$29K total vol

MI-11 House Election Winner

42pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

54%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

96%
Closes in 17mo
$57K total vol

CA-26 House Election Winner

42pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

51%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

93%
Closes in 17mo
$27K total vol

IL-05 House Election Winner

42pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

53%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

95%
Closes in 17mo
$8K total vol

OH-03 House Election Winner

41pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

53%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

94%
Closes in 17mo
$34K total vol

WA-02 House Election Winner

41pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

51%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

92%
Closes in 17mo
$8K total vol

IL-09 House Election Winner

41pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

53%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

94%
Closes in 17mo
$20K total vol

IL-14 House Election Winner

41pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

55%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

96%
Closes in 17mo
$10K total vol

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

41pt gap
Kalshi

0

71%
Polymarket

0

44%
Closes in 5mo
$121K total vol

VA-11 House Election Winner

41pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

55%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

95%
Closes in 17mo
$23K total vol

CA-34 House Election Winner

41pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

54%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

95%
Closes in 17mo
$25K total vol

MA-01 House Election Winner

41pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

52%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

93%
Closes in 17mo
$13K total vol

GA-04 House Election Winner

40pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic party

54%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

94%
Closes in 17mo
$31K total vol
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