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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

4pt gap
Kalshi

Gavin Newsom

24%
Polymarket

Gavin Newsom

24%
Closes in 29mo
$1.3B total vol

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

49pt gap
Kalshi

J.D. Vance

34%
Polymarket

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

49%
Closes in 29mo
$684.6M total vol

Presidential Election Winner 2028

5pt gap
Kalshi

Marco Rubio

19%
Polymarket

JD Vance

18%
Closes in 42mo
$640.0M total vol

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

8pt gap
Kalshi

Nicolás Maduro

65%
Polymarket

Nicolás Maduro

67%
Closes in 7mo
$93.6M total vol

Next French Presidential Election

9pt gap
Kalshi

Jordan Bardella

32%
Polymarket

Jordan Bardella

23%
Closes in 24mo
$81.5M total vol

California Governor Election Winner

3pt gap
Kalshi

Xavier Becerra

59%
Polymarket

Xavier Becerra

61%
Closes in 17mo
$61.7M total vol

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

1pt gap
Kalshi

Ken Paxton

96%
Polymarket

Ken Paxton

96%
Closes in 5mo
$32.5M total vol

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

5pt gap
Kalshi

Karen Bass

69%
Polymarket

Karen Bass

70%
Closes in 12mo
$25.0M total vol

Which party will win the House in 2026?

5pt gap
Kalshi

Democratic Party

76%
Polymarket

Democratic Party

81%
Closes in 8mo
$20.1M total vol

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

1pt gap
Kalshi

D-House, D-Senate

45%
Polymarket

Democrats Sweep

47%
Closes in 8mo
$12.9M total vol

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

14pt gap
Kalshi

Naftali Bennett

52%
Polymarket

Naftali Bennett

38%
Closes in 226mo
$11.8M total vol

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

12pt gap
Kalshi

Andy Burnham

59%
Polymarket

Andy Burnham

46%
Closes in 43mo
$8.9M total vol

Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?

29pt gap
Kalshi

Todd Blanche

36%
Polymarket

No Announcement by June 30

71%
Closes in 32mo
$8.3M total vol

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

1pt gap
Kalshi

Republican Party

53%
Polymarket

Republican Party

52%
Closes in 8mo
$7.4M total vol

Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Kalshi

Graham Platner

98%
Polymarket

Graham Platner

99%
Closes in 5mo
$6.4M total vol

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

2pt gap
Kalshi

Byron Donalds

88%
Polymarket

Byron Donalds

88%
Closes in 5mo
$6.2M total vol

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

45pt gap
Kalshi

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

100%
Polymarket

Pam Bondi

100%
Closes in 7mo
$5.7M total vol

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

6pt gap
Kalshi

Before 2027

13%
Polymarket

Before 2027

8%
Closes in 7mo
$5.2M total vol

Next Prime Minister of Slovenia

3pt gap
Kalshi

Janez Janša

94%
Polymarket

Janez Janša

98%
Closes in 19mo
$4.1M total vol

Texas Senate Election Matchup

Kalshi

Talarico vs. Paxton

96%
Polymarket

Talarico & Paxton

96%
Closes in 5mo
$4.0M total vol
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